NFP Overview
July 1st 2026 - SPX & SPX Index Options Performance
Ugly day for tech going into NFP numbers tmrw. Equal weight indices still managed to close green on the week but tech dragging NQ down 1.5% by close. All this contributes more to already extreme dispersion in the market, 1m implied correlations closed the day ~0.05, a new YTD low.
JPM NFP scenario once again suggest the best outcome is a mild print. Strong print last month saw indices take a nosedive as rate hike odds climbed.
Expectations have been adjusted slightly higher by ~30k for June print so bar is slightly higher for a large beat.
Despite the terrible reaction last month, SPX straddles for tomorrow trading at ~60 bps, 5 year lows but slightly above June release.)
Historic NFP data (from https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm):
Final revision sum:
Decent jump back up in final revisions but likely attributed to the FIFA World Cup in US.
Overnight SPX Straddle performance:
