Index melt up in full swing, all bearish narratives ignored so far. NFP data coming out tomorrow morning, currently lowest priced straddles since Dec 2024. Short day so likely muted reaction post data release.
JPM expectations quite wide relative to how cheap the straddles are…
We’ve seen weakening econ data lately, with Powell suggesting rate cuts would have been on the table if not for the uncertainty surrounding tariff impact.
Historic NFP data (built from https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm):
Final revision sum:
Final 12m sum showing drop off from last years positive revisions.
Overnight SPX Straddle performance ($200k fixed notional):
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Vol Vibes to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.