NFP Overview
April 2nd 2026 - SPX & SPX Options
NFP for March gets released on a holiday, however, futures still trade when the numbers come out so we will still get to see the immediate reaction even though we are going into a 3-day weekend.
Probabilities around rate decisions have swung both ways over last 30 days, from 18% chance of a rate cut to almost 10% chance of a rate hike and now firmly in the “no change” camp as markets deal with consequences of current conflict in the middle east.
First revisions continue to come in negative but the overall adjustments are smaller than 2024/ early 2025.
No options for tomorrow, instead Monday straddles trading ~150bps, near highest levels since Apr 2025.
Historic NFP data (from https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm):
Final revision sum:
Overnight SPX Straddle performance ($200k fixed notional):
