The first FOMC meeting of the year is here, with markets assigning nearly 100% probability of an ‘unchanged’ rate decision outcome today. Econ data has been strong lately and whatever outcome from Trump’s tariff obsession is yet to be felt. The December FOMC left everyone a bit shell shocked as markets dropped nearly 3% in the last few hrs.
Despite the nasty reaction to the last meeting, todays ATM SPX straddle is pricing roughly the same vols as the December one.
Updated 1-DTE & Intraday SPX Straddle performance:
Note: All charts represent $200k notional bet size (ex. ~3 XSP at 6000 SPX)
1-DTE
Overnight Straddle
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