Previous CPI update:
SPX straddles going into CPI at their cheapest level since 2021. Reactions remain rather positive as inflation keeps declining.
Overall, no big surprises in the data so we keep moving ~ the implied breakeven level (straddles flat for last year.)
Immediate overnight reaction to the number release has been weak lately (May/June only positive immediate reaction):
RTH Straddles:
RTH a snooze fest since late 2022, unless we get an above consensus print again (previous print was higher than expected) safe to say CPI is not the catalyst it used to be anymore.
For any1 interested, here are my Oct CPI estimates:
https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/oct-2024-cpi-estimate?r=1r1n6n